Title: The Geopolitical Chessboard: China, Russia, and the Israel-Hamas Conflict by Dr. Kiran Kakade

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com

Introduction:

The Israel-Hamas conflict is a complex and ever-evolving crisis that has ramifications far beyond the borders of the Middle East. As this conflict unfolds, two major players in international politics, China and Russia, find themselves navigating a precarious path. This blog delves into their roles, interests, and responses in the context of this ongoing crisis.

China’s Delicate Balancing Act:

China’s historical involvement with the Palestinian cause dates back to the 1960s and 1970s when the alignment with Maoism and liberation movements led to support for Palestinian groups. During that period, China provided military assistance to organizations like the PLO. However, as China underwent a less radical transformation in the 1980s, it drew closer to Israel. Full diplomatic relations between China and Israel were established only in 1992.

In recent years, China has endorsed a two-state solution and positioned itself as a mediator, an effort that intensified after it successfully brokered normalization between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Simultaneously, economic and technological ties between China and Israel have deepened.

China’s Response to the Recent Conflict:

When the recent cross-border attacks occurred, China issued a cautious statement urging relevant parties to exercise restraint and protect civilians. However, after a meeting with U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Chinese President Xi Jinping strengthened the statement, condemning all violence and attacks on civilians without naming Hamas specifically.

The Complexity of Public Opinion:

Comments on the Weibo page for the Israeli Embassy in China were a mixed bag. Some expressed support for Israel, while others criticized Israeli policies. Worryingly, there were also instances of antisemitic posts. This rise in online antisemitism in China, notably since 2009, is concerning and mirrors a global trend.

China’s Propensity to Blame the United States:

Chinese state media has tended to attribute uncertain political issues to the United States. In the context of the Israel-Hamas conflict, Chinese news reports have highlighted Israel’s actions in Gaza, though Hamas’s attacks were also acknowledged. The emphasis was on Washington’s perceived interference in the Middle East. Remarkably, amid the violence in the Middle East, the Chinese media’s primary focus remained on President Xi’s actions.

Future Implications:

China’s attitude toward the Israel-Hamas conflict is unlikely to shift significantly. Its role as a mediator may be viewed with skepticism following the weekend attacks, and the crisis has exposed the limits of China’s influence. Striking a balance between not fully condemning Hamas, which Israel demands, and taking a strong stance risks alienating its Arab and Iranian partners.

Russia’s Potential Gains:

In contrast to China’s cautious approach, Russia sees an opportunity in the Israel-Hamas conflict. As Israel seeks U.S. military aid, there is concern that these requests might divert attention and resources from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Russia also stands to benefit from the rising price of oil, which bolsters its economy.

The Kremlin’s Perspective:

The Kremlin understands that the Israel-Hamas conflict could divert attention from Ukraine, even though it has its own reservations about the conflict’s escalation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov believes that if the U.S. focuses on the Israel conflict, arms deliveries to Ukraine may slow down, ultimately helping Russia achieve its objectives.

Complex Supply Chain Dynamics:

While Israel’s military requests don’t significantly overlap with Ukraine’s, pressure on supplies could rise if Israel launches a ground war. In that case, Israel might rely heavily on precision munitions, depleting existing stocks. Furthermore, the conflict might strain Israel’s military resources.

Conclusion:

As the Israel-Hamas conflict unfolds, China and Russia both find themselves in unique positions. China’s mediation efforts and delicate balancing act are tested by the crisis, potentially affecting its relationships in the region. Meanwhile, Russia sees an opportunity to divert attention away from Ukraine and bolster its own interests. The ongoing crisis demonstrates how global geopolitical dynamics can influence regional conflicts in unexpected ways, highlighting the complex nature of international politics.